Business development David Craik · 12 December 2018
“Disorderly” Brexit threatens post-2014 economic growth in Scotland
The Scottish Economy is growing at its fastest rate since the independence referendum in 2014 but remains at’serious threat from a “disorderly” Brexit, according to new research. The Fraser of Allander Institute’s latest Economic Commentary ahead of tomorrow’s Scottish Budget stated that the Scottish economy had performed strongly in 2018 but that the outlook for 2019 and beyond is subject to unprecedented uncertainty and will hinge upon a series of crucial decisions taken in the UK Parliament over the next few weeks. It warned that leaving the EU without a deal? or transition period would represent a severe negative? economic shock. The latest forecasts, assuming there is a smooth transition, is for growth in Scotland of 1.4% in 2019, 1.5% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021. A disorderly Brexit remains the biggest threat to Scottish jobs and growth, warned the Institute. It said that the Bank of England had set out a worst-case? scenario which could see the UK economy shrink by around 8% from 2019. This would be around double the size of the recession Scotland witnessed during the financial crisis and would be equivalent to an extra 100, 000 people unemployed in Scotland.